Jack Goldstone on "A New Revolution in Iran?" | Exclusive Interview

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Summary:
Professor Goldstone, an academic and intellectual with expertise in revolutions and social protests, addresses the host's questions about the ongoing protests in Iran. Acknowledging the potential revolutionary state in Iran, Goldstone emphasizes the significance of the country's youth in shaping its future. He clarifies his lack of direct involvement in the US government and discusses his past consultations on Iran, highlighting that his opinions have not been valued since 2014.

Goldstone then delves into the dynamics of social change, noting that Iran has experienced substantial shifts through elections, challenging the stereotype of a purely clerical-led theocracy. He warns against limiting experienced legislators from running in future elections, as it could spark more serious protests.

Transitioning to his expertise in revolutions, Goldstone identifies five crucial factors: a weak and illegitimate government, elite dissent, widespread popular grievances, a unifying ideology, and international support for change. He stresses that revolutions are difficult to predict, emphasizing the importance of these elements in precipitating significant societal shifts. Goldstone concludes by underscoring the unpredictability of crises that can lead to revolutionary movements.

Professor Goldstone discusses key factors in assessing the potential for a revolution in Iran. He emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding elite reactions, popular support, and the strength of the government. Reflecting on the 2009 urban revolt in Iran, he notes the absence of a corresponding rural uprising, allowing the government to suppress the protests.

Goldstone then evaluates the current situation in Iran, highlighting concerns about the government's perceived ineffectiveness and its hostile stance toward the West, resulting in economic sanctions. While some view the government as illegitimate, others still see the West as an enemy. The economy's impact on legitimacy depends on factors such as inflation and a potential economic crash.

Analyzing conditions for revolution, Goldstone notes widespread popular grievances, particularly in women's rights movements. However, he points out that these protests haven't spread to older age groups, a significant demographic in Iran. The current ideology centered on women's rights may not be broad enough to unify the entire population against the government. Additionally, the government's response to protests, such as imposing fines rather than harsh arrests, could defuse tensions. Goldstone concludes that a unifying ideology capable of mobilizing diverse segments of society is crucial for a broad revolutionary movement to emerge.

Jack A. Goldstone, born on September 30, 1953, is an American sociologist, political scientist, and historian, with expertise in social movements, revolutions, political demography, and the 'Rise of the West' in world history. Authoring or editing 13 books and over 150 research articles, Goldstone is a prominent figure in the study of revolutions and long-term social change. He has significantly contributed to cliodynamics, economic history, and political demography, being the first scholar to detail the cyclical relationship between global population cycles and political rebellions. Goldstone played a crucial role in the "California school" in world history, challenging the traditional view of a dynamic West versus a stagnant East, proposing a 'late divergence' model.
Currently, he holds the position of the Virginia E. and John T. Hazel, Jr. Professor of Public Policy and Eminent Scholar in the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. Goldstone has held various roles globally, including the Elman Family Professor of Public Policy at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology in 2016 and founding director of the Research Laboratory in Political Demography and Macrosocial Dynamics in Moscow from 2013 to 2015. He has also consulted for the US government, chaired evaluations, and served as a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, currently holding the title of Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center.


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